Treasury
Put a Euro Number on Commodity, FX and Rate Risk your Board can Target
UnRısk turns your exposures into one Cash Flow at Risk number, with the hedge accounting that stands behind it.
Built on the pricing engine bank risk teams already trust for valuation and regulatory work.
Challenges of Corporate Treasury Teams
Budgets assume fixed rates. When rates move, the gap lands in your cash flow, measured in euros.
Hedging one exposure at a time hides the offsets that already exist across the group.
Benchmarks rarely match the physical contract, so basis risk gets assumed instead of measured.
Hedge ratios tell you how much is covered. They don’t tell you how much you can afford to lose.
Your treasury system holds the exposure data but rarely runs the risk analytics on it.
The board asks for one number it can act on. Most reporting hands it a hedge percentage instead.
How the Number gets built
UnRısk turns your exposures into a Cash Flow at Risk number your board can act on. The engine maps each cash flow line item to a small set of market factors, simulates them forward across your plan horizon, and rolls them into one consolidated cash flow distribution.
Basis risk is measured from market data, not assumed. Attribution shows which currencies, commodities and rates drive the downside, and which ones already cancel out inside the group.
The same engine values your hedges, runs effectiveness testing under ASC 815 and IFRS 9, and produces the audit trail. Every number traces back to its inputs. No black box.
Group Treasurers
Size your cover against a risk target instead of a fixed percentage policy.
CFOs
Put a euro value on FX, commodity and rate risk for the board and audit committee.
Treasury Risk Teams
Run stress tests, Expected Shortfall, and hedge decisions driven by CFaR.
UnRısk delivers this with practitioner-led treasury advisory through our partnership with YourTreasury, so the modelling comes with people who have run treasury desks.
The Output your Board and Auditors can use
One multi-asset Cash Flow at Risk and Earnings at Risk number the board can target
Basis risk measured from market data across commodity, FX and rate exposures
Hedge cover sized to a risk target, with the risk reduction you get per euro of cost
Expected Shortfall for tail-sensitive cover and insurance-style decisions
Hedge effectiveness testing and documentation under ASC 815 and IFRS 9
Attribution by exposure and factor, ready for board packs and audit committee reporting
Outputs delivered into your TMS, board-pack automation and BI tools
Three Ways in, one Engine underneath
UnRısk
EXCEL
The add-in for teams who want the number in the tool they already use, without a new system to learn.
UnRısk
LIBRARY
The pricing and risk engine, wired into your TMS and data stack for a fully automated risk run.
UnRısk
FACTORY
The automated risk run, managed for teams who would rather not build and maintain it in-house.
Cash Flow at Risk, Earnings at Risk and Expected Shortfall all run on the same engine, so the risk number and the valuation come from one source.
The CFaR Playbook for CFOs and Treasurers
52 pages on turning commodity, FX and rate exposure into one Cash Flow at Risk number the board can target, with the hedge accounting that supports it. A worked example, the volatility and correlation picture, tail risk and Expected Shortfall, and a roadmap from percentage hedging to risk targets. Published with Your Treasury.
Growing faster than your treasury setup?
Post-acquisition, or expanding across currencies and entities before you have built a full treasury team? You hit multinational risk problems early, on a smaller team’s resources.
UnRısk gives you the board-level risk number without a long platform project. A defensible first number in weeks, in the tools you already run.
Frequently asked Questions
What is Cash Flow at Risk?
A probability-weighted estimate of how far free cash flow could fall short of plan over a chosen horizon, at a set confidence level, in the same currency the budget is written in. A twelve-month CFaR at 95% confidence of EUR 85m means that in roughly one year in twenty, cash flow should fall short of plan by EUR 85m or more, given current exposures and current market volatility.
Which exposures are covered?
Commodity, FX and interest rate exposures, modelled together in one distribution, so cross-asset offsets and basis risk both show up.
Does it support hedge accounting?
Yes. The engine values hedges and runs effectiveness testing and documentation under ASC 815 and IFRS 9, so the risk analytics and the accounting treatment come from one system.
How does it deploy?
Cloud API, on-premise, or the UnRısk EXCEL add-in. Outputs feed the TMS, board-pack automation and BI tools such as Power BI, Tableau and Looker.
How quickly can we see a first number?
In most portfolios, three to ten risk factors explain the bulk of cash flow volatility, so a first model can produce defensible answers in weeks.
What does it take on our side to implement?
A handful of exposures and your plan numbers to start. Because a few risk factors carry most of the volatility, the first number lands in weeks, not a multi-quarter build. It runs without a dedicated systems team.
How do we know the numbers hold up in an audit?
Every result traces back to its inputs and the market data behind them. You can open the calculation, check it, and take it into an audit. No black box.
Is this built for corporates or for banks?
The engine was built for bank risk desks, where the modelling has to hold up to regulators. We run that same engine for corporate treasury, with the cash flow and hedge accounting views a treasurer needs.
Ready to put a euro number on your commodity, FX and rate exposure?